● NBA statline estimates
Player projections built from real game logs, not vibes. Every adjustment is shown on the page, so you can disagree with the working instead of trusting the number.
Free. No account, no email, nothing to install.
Likely range 21–31. Not one number pretending to be certain.
Underneath: his per-minute rates, the minutes he is projected to play, the opponent's defence, and who is out of the lineup — each one listed with what it moved and why.
Per-minute production from his own game log, multiplied by the minutes he is likely to play. Not a season average pretending tonight is an average night.
Every projection comes with the band the result usually lands in. In three seasons of backtests, the real result landed inside the 80% range about 80% of the time.
Opponent defence, minutes, teammates out. Each layer names what it changed, by how much, and how much data stands behind it.
Describe the game in your own words and it applies only the parts it can actually measure — and lists the rest, unapplied, with the reason.
There isn't one yet. The 2026–27 season has not started.
From opening night, a projection goes out before tip-off and the result goes out the next morning — every one, hit or miss, whether it makes the model look good or not.
By December there will be a real record on this page, and it will be worth something precisely because it was published before anyone knew how it would turn out.